TOWARD THE END OF LAST WEEK’S COLUMN, I mentioned that I was planning to put together a disaster kit to prepare for the effects of the strong El Niño event expected this winter. In researching what to include in a disaster kit, I came across a recent article in The New Yorker by Kathryn Schulz titled “The Really Big One.”

The article detailed the expected effects of an earthquake in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a fault that runs just off the Pacific coast of North America from Mendocino in Northern California up to British Columbia, Canada. The assessment was sobering, to say the least:

“If … only the southern part of the Cascadia subduction zone gives way … the magnitude of the resulting quake will be somewhere between 8.0 and 8.6. That’s the big one. If the entire zone gives way at once, an event that seismologists call a full-margin rupture, the magnitude will be somewhere between 8.7 and 9.2. That’s the very big one.

“… When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west — losing, within minutes, all the elevation and compression it has gained over centuries. Some of that shift will take place beneath the ocean, displacing a colossal quantity of seawater. … The water will surge upward into a huge hill, then promptly collapse. One side will rush west, toward Japan. The other side will rush east, in a seven-hundred-mile liquid wall that will reach the Northwest coast, on average, fifteen minutes after the earthquake begins. By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, ‘Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.’”

According to my rough, back-of-an-envelope calculations, the area of Murphy’s “toast” is roughly 35,000 square miles. His has been the standout statement from the article. In a follow-up article, Schulz explained that, “What Murphy did not mean is that everyone west of I-5 will be injured or killed; FEMA’s casualty figures, while horrifying, amount to under one-half of one percent of the population of the region. Nor did he mean that every structure west of the interstate will fail, although there the numbers are grimmer: region-wide, the agency expects to see seriously damaged or destroyed eighty-eight per cent of ports and potable water sources; seventy-seven per cent of fire stations and waste-water treatment plants; two-thirds of all airports, hospitals, railways, and schools; almost half of all highway bridges, police stations, and emergency command centers; plus almost three thousand miles of natural gas pipelines, seven hundred and forty-three electric power facilities, and nearly a million residential buildings.”

While this is a chilling scenario, such a cataclysm would deal only a glancing blow to most of the Bay Area. There are, however, faults closer to home that are overdue for a significant earthquake. Of particular concern to people whose job it is to plan for these things is the possibility of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault that runs at the base of the East Bay Hills from San Jose to the northern shore of San Pablo Bay.

The website of the Association of Bay Area Governments has maps of the projected shaking from an event on the Hayward Fault — http://resilience.abag.ca.gov/earthquakes/ is a good place to start. According to many scenarios, should a quake happen there a significant fraction of the Bay Area would be without power and water, possibly for weeks, while an equally significant fraction of the area’s roads, ports, railroads and pipelines would be out of service. Thousands would be left homeless.

Before you collapse into a quivering lump of terror, there are a few things to remember. First, while the first hours and days after a major quake will be difficult and stressful, the federal and state government’s response to an event of this magnitude would be correspondingly massive, and the logistical capabilities of our country are the best in the world, so we would get through it just fine — and perhaps even emerge from it with a renewed appreciation for the generosity and decency of our fellow citizens.

So my purpose in mentioning all this is not to scare you, but to provide motivation to put together a disaster kit. You can purchase a premade kit online for between $150 and $300; you can also go to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s website (ready.gov) for helpful lists and suggestions for surviving in the days following a disaster.

My own suggestion would be to make an “earthquake binder.” The moments after a quake are going to be confusing and stressful, so it would be good, well before disaster strikes, to list the steps you’ll need to take in the hours and days after a quake. Put that list into a binder and store it in a safe, accessible place. You can then refer to that binder when disaster strikes, having already thought through and planned your actions in advance.

Matt Talbot is a writer and poet, as well as an old Benicia hand. He works for a tech start-up in San Francisco.

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