IN PREPARED COMMENTS BEFORE CONGRESS LAST WEEK, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen cited continued weakness in the housing sector as one concern of the Fed as it mulls its next move on interest rates. Over the weekend, national business news outlets reported there was no reason to be concerned, but the housing market remains soft as it faces the headwinds of a possible rise in interest rates.
Those rates, while higher than a year ago, remain at historically low levels. They were at the lowest point of 2014 last week.
Yellen’s comments were made Wednesday morning. That afternoon, Fannie Mae released its April National Housing Survey results. The monthly survey assesses attitudes about homeownership, renting a home, the economy and household finances.
Contrary to Yellen’s comments and national media reports, the FNMA survey results reflect broad-based optimism for housing among the American public. Fifty percent said they believed home values would rise in the next 12 months, a slight increase over the previous month’s 48 percent. Those who believed values would decline held steady at 5 percent, the all-time low for this survey.
More results:
• Consumers who believe it is a good time to buy a home held steady at 69 percent, and those who felt it is a good time to sell increased to a record-high 42 percent. One factor holding back the recovering housing market is the lack of available homes for sale. An increase in home sellers would be welcome news for the housing sector and the larger economy.
• Consumer outlook on the economy is still poor but improving, with 35 percent of consumers saying they believe the economy is on the right track, a 2-point increase from a month earlier.
• On the issue of personal finances, the number of consumers who believed their finances would improve over the next 12 months declined to 41 percent, while the number that believed personal finances would get worse increased to 14 percent. Still, the outlook was much improved from just six months ago, when 22 percent of respondents believed their finances would decline.
• The share of respondents who reported sharply improved earnings in the last 12 months increased to 25 percent, while the share of consumers that reported significantly less income dropped to 12 percent, tying an all-time low for the survey.
• A significant number of respondents reported a big income improvement over the last year. Another report this week showed that demand for so-called luxury homes is heating up as well.
• Consumers reporting a significant rise in household expenses rose 6 points to 39 percent, while consumers reporting expenses were about the same dropped to 50 percent, an 8-point drop.
• Perhaps the most enlightening of the survey results: 52 percent of respondents believed it would be difficult to obtain a mortgage today. Only 45 percent felt they could easily obtain one. The persistent perception that obtaining a mortgage is more difficult now than ever seems to be the real issue holding back a more robust housing market.
News out of Washington on Tuesday, however, may help with the persistent issue of tight underwriting standards. More on that next week.
Guy Benjamin (CAL BRE License #01014834, NMLS 887909) writes a weekly column for The Herald, offering general information on real estate matters. As it is impossible to address all possibilities and variations, he will try to answer individual questions by readers who contact him at 707-246-0949 or gbenjamin@rpm-mtg.com.
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