I HAVE TRIED! OH HOW I HAVE LABORED to rid my mind of those visions of the future that have led to my expulsion from the ranks of the eagerly read to the lining of the waste basket. Why can I not find and pass on those messages of optimism that open the readers’ day as a morning sun? Just look at that title — more gloom; who needs it? But it is (apparently) a curse for me (and perhaps not insignificantly, the human race) from which there is no escape!

Because the miserable reality is that it is indeed an endangered sea, and that has catastrophic potential. For the faithful three readers still following this, I lead on into that brutal reality.

From “Oceans Becoming Acidic Ten Times Faster Than Thought,” by Helen Scales, National Geographic News, Nov. 24, 2008:

“Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may make Earth’s oceans more acidic faster than previously thought — unbalancing precious ecosystems in the process, according to one major study.

“Since 2000, scientists have measured the acidity of seawater around Tatoosh Island off the coast of Washington state. The acidity increased ten times quicker than climate models predicted. The research also revealed the corrosive effect of acidic oceans could trigger a dramatic shift in coastal species and jeopardize shellfish stocks.

“‘The increase in acidity we saw during our study was about the same magnitude as we expect over the course of the next century,’ said study co-author Timothy Wootton, a marine biologist from the University of Chicago. ‘This raises a warning flag that the oceans may be changing faster than people think,’ he noted.

“Increased carbon dioxide emissions from human activities have led to a 30-percent rise in ocean acidity in the past 200 years.

(Crucial reality: When atmospheric carbon dioxide dissolves in the oceans it forms carbonic acid, which in turn has a negative impact on marine life.)

“Laboratory studies show that as seawater acidity increases, the calcium carbonate shells and skeletons of many marine species, such as hard corals, sea urchins, and stony seaweeds, begin to corrode. …

“Wootton and colleagues built models of an ecosystem based on field data of how species interact along Tatoosh Island’s rocky shores.

“Surprisingly, in a scenario of increasing acidity, not all species with calcium carbonate shells fared badly.

“Instead, a shift took place: Larger mussels and barnacles suffered, leaving smaller barnacles and some calcium-based seaweeds better off.” (Comparatively!)

“In nature, ‘species are competing for space, they are eating each other, it’s an incredibly dynamic system,’ said James Forester, a Harvard ecologist.”

We press on. “Ocean Acidification Threatens Food Webs, 150 Scientists Warn,” posted by David Braun of National Geographic in “Ocean Views” on Feb. 2, 2009:

“We hear a lot about how carbon dioxide emissions are warming the atmosphere and changing climate in ways that are damaging, if not catastrophic, for life on Earth.” (Roll that word “catastrophic” about in your mind!)

“Increasingly we are also learning about the impact of carbon dioxide on the oceans. As the sea absorbs carbon from the air, its chemistry is changing, becoming more acidic. This also is likely to have a profound impact on life, experts warn.

“More than 150 marine scientists from 26 countries called for immediate action by policymakers to reduce carbon dioxide emissions sharply so as to avoid widespread and severe damage to marine ecosystems from ocean acidification. They sounded the alarm in the Monaco Declaration …

“Ocean acidification could affect marine food webs and lead to substantial changes in commercial fish stocks, threatening protein supply and food security for millions of people as well as the multi-billion dollar fishing industry, the Monaco Declaration says.

“‘Coral reefs provide fish habitat, generate billions of dollars annually in tourism, protect shorelines from erosion and flooding, and provide the foundation for tremendous biodiversity, equivalent to that found in tropical rain forests,’ the Declaration says.

“Yet by mid-century, ocean acidification may render most regions chemically inhospitable to coral reefs. (!) These and other acidification-related changes could affect a wealth of marine goods and services, such as our ability to use the ocean to manage waste, to provide chemicals to make new medicines, and to benefit from its natural capacity to regulate climate.

“For instance, ocean acidification will reduce the ocean’s capacity to absorb anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), which will exacerbate climate change.

“To avoid severe and widespread damages, all of which are ultimately driven by increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, the scientists called for policymakers to act quickly to incorporate these concerns into plans to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at a safe level to avoid not only dangerous climate change but also dangerous ocean acidification.

“Prince Albert II of Monaco urged political leaders to heed the Monaco Declaration as they prepare for climate negotiations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen … ‘I strongly support this declaration, which is in full accord with my efforts and those of my Foundation to alleviate climate change,’ he said in a news release about the declaration.

“‘The chemistry is so fundamental and changes so rapid and severe that impacts on organisms appear unavoidable,’ said James Orr of the Marine Environment Laboratories (MEL-IAEA) and chairman of the symposium, in the same news release.

“‘The questions are now how bad will it be and how soon will it happen. The report from the symposium summarizes the state of the science and priorities for future research, while the Monaco Declaration implores political leaders to launch urgent actions to limit the source of the problem.’

“‘In order to advance the science of ocean acidification, we need to bring together the best scientists to share their latest research results and to set priorities for research to improve our knowledge of the processes and of the impacts of acidification on marine ecosystems,’ said Patricio Bernal, executive secretary of Unesco IOC.

“The Monaco Declaration is based on the Research Priorities Report developed by participants at (the) international symposium on The Ocean in a High-CO2 World, organized by Unesco’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP), with the support of Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation and several other partners.

Worried yet? But there’s more!

From “Rising ocean acid levels are ‘the biggest threat to coral reefs’; the speed by which oceans’ acid levels have risen has caught scientists off-guard, says the head of NOAA,” in The Guardian.com, July 9, 2012:

“Oceans’ rising acid levels have emerged as one of the biggest threats to coral reefs, acting as the ‘osteoporosis of the sea’ and threatening everything from food security to tourism to livelihoods, the head of a U.S. scientific agency said Monday.

“The speed by which the oceans’ acid levels has risen caught scientists off-guard, with the problem now considered to be climate change’s ‘equally evil twin,’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) chief Jane Lubchenco told The Associated Press.

“‘We’ve got sort of the perfect storm of stressors from multiple places really hammering reefs around the world,’ said Lubchenco, who was in Australia to speak at the International Coral Reef Symposium in the northeast city of Cairns, near the Great Barrier Reef.

“‘It’s a very serious situation.’

“Oceans absorb excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in acidity. Scientists are worried about how that increase will affect sea life, particularly reefs, as higher acid levels make it tough for coral skeletons to form.

“Lubchenco likened ocean acidification to osteoporosis, a bone-thinning disease, because researchers are concerned it will lead to the deterioration of reefs.

“Scientists initially assumed that the carbon dioxide absorbed by the water would be sufficiently diluted as the oceans mixed shallow and deeper waters.

“But most of the carbon dioxide and the subsequent chemical changes are being concentrated in surface waters, Lubchenco said.

“‘And those surface waters are changing much more rapidly than initial calculations have suggested,’ she said.

“‘It’s yet another reason to be very seriously concerned about the amount of carbon dioxide that is in the atmosphere now and the additional amount we continue to put out.’

“Higher acidity levels are especially problematic for creatures such as oysters, because they slow the growth of their shells. Experiments have shown other animals, such as clown fish, also suffer.

“In a study that mimicked the level of acidity scientists expect by the end of the century, clown fish began swimming toward predators, instead of away from them, because their sense of smell had been dulled.

“‘We’re just beginning to uncover many of the ways in which the changing chemistry of oceans affects lots of behaviors,’ Lubchenco said. ‘So salmon not being able to find their natal streams because their sense of smell was impaired, that’s a very real possibility.’

“‘The potential impact of all of this is huge,’ Lubchenco said.”

And not only ecologically!

“Coral reefs attract critical tourism dollars and protect fragile coastlines from threats such as tsunamis. Seafood is the primary source of protein for many people around the world. Already, some oyster farmers have blamed higher acidity levels for a decrease in stocks.

“Some attempts to address the problem are already under way. Instruments that measure changing acid levels in the water have been installed in some areas to warn oyster growers when to stop the flow of ocean water to their hatcheries.

“But that is only a short-term solution, Lubchenco said. The most critical element, she said, is reducing carbon emissions.

“‘The carbon dioxide that we have put in the atmosphere will continue to be absorbed by oceans for decades,’ she said.

“‘It is going to be a long time before we can stabilise and turn around the direction of change, simply because it’s a big atmosphere and it’s a big ocean.’”

Jerome Page is a Benicia resident.