FIRST, AN APOLOGY. For those who weary of my wailing about warming, I can only say in justification, my skin is delicate, I burn easily and the prospect shakes me up. Then again, what you’ll read here just might shake you up too!

For a dramatic twist on the story of global warming, we have the following from PolitiFact (May 2014). (You can even skip the first half now, cut to the meaty part and come back. Or not. I’m easy. I think you’ll find the last bit pretty startling! “End of days” kind of stuff.) But before getting into the substance of this report, it might be useful for the public to grasp the degree to which what is essentially a scientific matter has been transformed into a political battleground.

“As Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio edges closer to a 2016 presidential bid, he wants Republican primary voters to know where he stands on litmus test issues like climate change.

“‘I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate,’ Rubio said on ABC’s This Week. ‘I do not believe that the laws that they propose we pass will do anything about it, except it will destroy our economy.” (And if that brand of leadership and scientific awareness doesn’t quality the man for public office, what could?)

Many — a very substantial majority of very well propagandized — Republican voters will nod in agreement, but the question is, how well does this view sit with the public at large? (Not to mention its validity, of course; minor issue, but there’s always that!)

“Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s ‘Morning Joe,’ said Rubio might be on relatively safe ground with the public.” (Whew! Safety first when in public service!)

“‘From 2004, 2005, 2006, Americans were bought in to the concept of climate change and that we need to move aggressively on it,’ Scarborough said. But since then, the public shifted, he said. ‘Check the polling: Most Americans began wandering away from this issue,’ Scarborough noted.”

But is it happening?! That’s the question.

“For nearly 15 years, the Gallup organization has been asking people if they think global warming is under way. In 2002, 71 percent of the public said it is happening or will happen in their lifetime. That percentage peaked at 75 percent in 2008 and then fell and bounced back to 65 percent.

“We find similar but slightly larger swings of opinion in the Pew Research Center data, although the Pew survey only goes back to 2006. Pew asks if people see solid evidence that the Earth is warming. In 2006, 77 percent said yes. That fell to 57 percent in 2009, then rose to 67 percent in 2013.

“The trends don’t exactly match the pattern Scarborough described. He suggested a simple slide down. In reality, there’s more of an up-down-up. Still, the public seems a little less certain about climate change today than in the mid 2000s.

“Is it something you worry about?”

And when you come right down to it, what the hell does public opinion have to do with the significance or validity of the position?

One great example is this issue. “Folks get tired of hearing about it”; it’s “low on the list of concerns.” It’s also possibly the most crucial environmental problem the human race has faced! And we’re maybe totally shafted! (Sorry for that outburst, I’ll ease off …)

“Interestingly, (Robert Brulle, a sociologist at Drexel University) and his colleagues Jason Carmichael and J. Craig Jenkins found that two factors primarily drive public concern about climate change. First, people worry more about it so long as more pressing problems like the economy don’t loom larger. Second, Republicans effectively can dial concern up or down.” (Not quite! More accurately, in current times, Republican politicians can and very clearly do dial concern down — and pretty much out!)

“The partisan split on this issue shows up in every survey. The more Republican the voter, the less likely they are to say climate change is real or that it will make a difference. When Republican leaders are more vocal in their rejection of climate change (such as voting against a particular bill), public concern falls, at least among Republican-leaning voters. When those leaders treat it more seriously, concern rises.” (But clearly rejection by the GOP is the dominant, latest and most compelling norm!)

“But do people worry about it a lot?

“Gallup finds that few Americans list climate change as a top concern. It ranked near the bottom out of 15 issues polled. Asked how much they worry, 51 percent said little or not at all about climate change, compared to just 11 percent who said they were unconcerned about the economy.

“Are humans causing it?

“In 2006, Pew found that 41 percent of the public thought the Earth was getting warmer mainly due to human activity such as burning fossil fuels. In keeping with the pattern we saw for other questions, that number dropped to 34 percent in 2010, and then rose to 44 percent by the end of 2013.

“On this point, note that the partisan divide is pronounced. Just 24 percent of Republicans thought humans were driving climate change, compared to 43 percent of independents and 66 percent of Democrats.”

And now, for a dose of extraordinarily heavy reality, I draw from the report, “Worst Drought in 1,000 years Could Begin in Eight Years,” posted Feb. 21, 2013, by Bruce Melton, Truthout/News Analysis. I strongly suggest that you read this dramatic analysis for its full impact. It is a blockbuster! I will note a few highlights.

“Beginning in just eight years, we could see permanent climate conditions across the North American Southwest that are comparable to the worst megadrought in 1,000 years.

“The latest research from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University published in December 2012 has some truly astounding news. The megadroughts referred to in the paper published in Nature Climate Change happened around about 900 to 1300 AD and are so extreme that they have no modern counterpart for comparison (these megadroughts will be referred to in the following as the ‘12th century megadrought’). The research was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

“We have been warned for decades that we would be facing a megadrought if we did not do something about climate pollution. We did not, and now according to the projections of a new study, that is just what the future may hold. And remember, projected conditions similar to the worst megadrought in 1,000 years would be the baseline conditions. Dry periods, which we normally refer to as drought times today, would be superimposed on top of the megadrought extremes.

“What does this mean? It means that even the best-case scenario that the (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is now considering results in an outcome that is the same, or ‘not greatly different,’ from the worst-case scenario of the new IPCC scenario family, for the next 10 to 30 years.

“Things will get far worse if we do not do something about climate pollution as fast as we can. But there is good news. Reality tells us that, contrary to what the voices of denial and delay are saying, the solutions to climate pollution will be no more expensive than the cost of clean drinking water across the planet every day.”

And what if these forecasts are exaggerating future reality, and it’s only a quarter or half as bad?! Some pessimist is sure to suggest that 25 or 50 percent of disaster is still unacceptable — but hey, if there’s a buck to be made, that clearly appears to be an acceptable trade. (See below.)

Finally, I would add just one more element in this sobering analysis of the future, given present trends. From The New York Times:

“The world may already be nearing a temperature at which the loss of the vast ice sheet covering Greenland would become inevitable. … The actual melting would then take centuries, but it would be unstoppable and could result in a sea level rise of 23 feet, with additional increases from other sources like melting Antarctic ice, potentially flooding the world’s major cities.”

Hey, man, get off the idle speculation! That’s way out there. More to the point, is worrying about all this justification for interfering with the splendid arrangements that have made our capitalistic system the envy of the world? And besides, look at the positive! Already there are those planning on steering their grandchildren into betting on the outcome: What could be better than investing in sunscreen, swimsuits, awnings and boating businesses?

Jerome Page is a Benicia resident.